Oscar Predictions

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Will Win: I've already blogged about how Juno is a likely upset; although I agree that my prediction is crazy, I'm sticking with it so I can be the guy who was right on this one.
Should Win: I wouldn't be disappointed with either No Country for Old Men or There Will Be Blood, or even Michael Clayton when it comes down to it. But There Will Be Blood is currently highest on my top ten list, so that's what should win.
Better Not Win: Joe Wright's great step backward Atonement certainly is pretty, and some scenes are well acted, but Wright couldn't figure out how to use any of it.

Director
Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen have never won a directing Oscar, not even for critics' darling Fargo. They're due.
Should Win: This is actually a pretty solid group of nominees. I'm going with Paul Thomas Anderson because he makes his film work by sheer force of directorial vision, but I'd be fine with any of these worthies.
Better Not Win: Despite what a lot of people think, Oscar didn't embarrass himself by nominating Jason Reitman—he shows uncanny skill at coaxing great performances out of his cast—and therefore I abstain.

Actress
Will Win: Call me crazy upset guy, but I'm going with Marion Cotillard, who seems to have narrowed the gap between Julie Christie and the rest of the pack. Did she narrow it enough to take the gold? We'll see.
Should Win: Well, Angelina Jolie should win, but they didn't nominate her. So I'm going with Julie Christie.
Better Not Win: Why, exactly, did Cate Blanchett receive a second nomination for failing to develop one whit on her performance from 11 years ago?

Actor
Will Win: I think this is the only category that's utterly and completely locked up, aside from perhaps Original Screenplay. Daniel Day-Lewis will win his second Oscar, and...
Should Win: I can't say I disagree.
Better Not Win: Part of being in a musical is singing. Johnny Depp forgot that part.
Haven't Seen: Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah

Supporting Actress
Will Win: Despite Amy Ryan's winning just about every critics' award, and despite Ruby Dee's status as an un-Oscared elder, Cate Blanchett pulls off the dual feat of playing the opposite sex and doing a bang-up job of it.
Should Win: But where's the love for Tilda Swinton, who's the yin to Clooney's yang, the opposite moral pole of Michael Clayton's universe?
Better Not Win: They nominated the wrong Briony; Saoirse Ronan is a competent child actor, but Romola Garai was nearly great.

Supporting Actor
Will Win: As implacable and unstoppable as his character is Javier Bardem's drive for Oscar; none dare stand in his way.
Should Win: Who am I to argue with the Prince Valiant haircut and the air gun? Javier Bardem.
Better Not Win: In perhaps the biggest instance of category fraud since Pigskin Parade, Casey Affleck, who is the main character of his film, just might win an award he does not deserve. He's good; he's not a supporting actor.

Original Screenplay
Will Win: The biggest lock of the season seems to be Diablo Cody's screenplay for Juno.
Should Win: Beyond all the name-dropping in Juno is a smart, funny, sometimes painful look at a girl floundering between the rules of childhood and the realities of adulthood.
Better Not Win: Abstain. All of the nominees I've seen are worthy.
Haven't Seen: Lars and the Real Girl

Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: There Will Be Blood because this is where Oscar awards the critical darlings? No Country for Old Men because the Best Picture frontrunner almost always wins? I have no clue. Flipping the coin: No Country.
Should Win: I'm going with No Country for Old Men, although I'm not sure how many of the film's narrative and tonal surprises were the Coens' invention.
Better Not Win: The screenplay may have been the least of Atonement's problems, but aside from that first act, it didn't impress.

Animated Feature
Will Win: OK, some things are more locked up than Juno's screenplay award. Ratatouille, of course.
Should Win: I was more impressed with Persepolis; the animation style made up for some narrative weaknesses.
Haven't Seen: Surf's Up

Cinematography
Will Win: Although it doesn't look like there's a front-runner, I could see it going to either No Country for Old Men or There Will Be Blood. Flipping the coin: No Country
Should Win: I'm going with There Will Be Blood, but I wouldn't be upset if No Country won.
Better Not Win: It's certainly full of pretty pictures, but Atonement can't figure out how to use them. The worst offense is that Dunkirk tracking shot. Why?

Art Direction
Will Win: Ooh, it's a tossup. The only weak nominee here is The Golden Compass, but I'm going to go with There Will Be Blood because a lot of people who know more than I do about art direction have been saying that Jack Fisk needs to finally win.
Should Win: As long as The Golden Compass doesn't win, I am fine with whoever they pick.
Better Not Win: See above.

Costume Design
Will Win: The green dress. I mean Atonement. It has to win something.
Should Win: Dear god I don't know. I'll go with La Vie en Rose.
Better Not Win: We've already seen the costumes for Elizabeth II: Elizabeth Harder, so why bother noticing them again?

Visual Effects
Will Win: Two words: Giant robots. Transformers.
Should Win: But I wanted to see the damn things transform! I abstain.
Better Not Win: Those cartoonish "animals" from The Golden Compass.

Sound Editing
Will Win: Giant. Robots. Remember back in 1999 when The Matrix won the second-most awards, all on the strengths of its special effects? Transformers is going to win the second-most awards on Sunday.
Should Win: The empty whoosh of the air gun, the agonizing hollow clanking of the tentpoles in the HVAC system at the hotel: No Country for Old Men had a wealth of memorable sound effects, which I'm pretty sure this category is supposed to honor.
Better Not Win: I abstain. I could go with any of the nominees.

Sound Mixing
Will Win: Robots. That are giant. Transformers.
Should Win: The entire Bourne series has been unjustly ignored by Oscar, so here's where the sound team behind The Bourne Ultimatum should receive its "series achievement" award.
Better Not Win: I abstain. This is a quality bunch.

Editing
Will Win: Despite the fact that No Country for Old Men will not win Best Picture (see above), this is the kind of award that goes to the Best Picture winner, unless it goes to a whiz-bang action movie. So obviously No Country will win. I think.
Should Win: Let's see some more props for the team behind The Bourne Ultimatum, who have advanced chaotic fight scenes to the point where anything more choppy will induce seasickness.
Better Not Win: I'm not wild about Into the Wild's overreliance on montages.

Makeup
Will Win: There's certainly a lot of makeup in the latest Pirates of the Caribbean film.
Should Win: Beautiful Marion Cotillard's transformation into unique-looking Edith Piaf in La Vie en Rose.
Better Not Win: I will not watch that Norbit film.

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: I have no clue. Will the mainstream non-Iraq documentary win? I haven't seen enough of the nominees to comment on their quality. I'll go with Sicko because people like a good acceptance speech.
Should Win: Of the two I saw, No End in Sight was clearly superior; in fact, it's one of the ten best films of 2007.
Better Not Win: I haven't seen any of the other nominees.

Original Score
Will Win: Can anything beat the typewriter-clacking in Dario Marianelli's Atonement score?
Should Win: I can't say I'd disagree with that choice.
Better Not Win: I shouldn't let my dislike for The Kite Runner influence my opinion of its score, but all I remember about it is vaguely "ethnic" wails.

Original Song
Will Win: "Falling Slowly" from Once just has to be their pick; they insulted it in every other category it deserved.
Should Win: See above.
Better Not Win: The songs in Enchanted fell into three categories: outright parody ("Happy Working Song"), is-it-parody? ("That's How You Know"), and cheeseball slacking by Menken and Schwartz ("So Close").

As for the rest, I haven't seen any nominees, so I'll dispense with the chatter. Here are my completely uninformed predictions.

Foreign Language Film: Katyn
Documentary Short: Salim Baba
Animated Short: Madame Tutli-Putli
Live-Action Short: Tanghi Argentini

So the awards count at the end of the night for fictional films of feature length will be thus:

No Country for Old Men: 5
Transformers: 3
There Will Be Blood: 2
Atonement: 2
Juno: 2
La Vie en Rose: 1
I'm Not There: 1
Ratatouille: 1
Pirates of the Caribbean: 1
Once: 1

It's probably not too late to place your bets in Vegas; tell them goatdog sent you.